Zelensky discusses peace in line with international law, while Putin imposes conditions reminiscent of the 18th-century partition. The path to ending the war is long, and both sides compete for global allies.
The Peace Summit in Switzerland, organized by Volodymyr Zelensky, concluded on June 15-16. It is challenging to judge its outcome as a failure or success because expectations for the meeting were significantly lowered. The “Zelensky Peace Formula” was formulated to garner as much support as possible for Ukraine overall. Even for such obvious demands as the protection of civilians, the safety of nuclear facilities, the appeal for the return of prisoners of war, or the safety of navigation in the Black Sea, it was clear that not all Summit participants would support the tough demands for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and its full liberation. Eighty countries and international organizations have signed a declaration supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, marking a significant achievement. Key players from the so-called global South, including India, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, are missing from the signatories. President Zelensky emphasized the importance of achieving a fair peace resolution.
This concept guided the Swiss Summit, yet it’s evident that genuine peace, or at least some form of ceasefire, will need to be addressed with Russia at some point. It will not be a good, fair, or satisfactory truce for either side. There is currently no space for such conversations, and there will not be good conditions for conducting such talks soon. Although the Swiss Summit aimed to promote peace in the spirit of humanism and international law, the second main stakeholder, Putin, presented his concept just before the Summit. Russia was absent at the Summit in Switzerland. Kyiv did not want the Russian delegation there, considering it too early to engage in dialogue with them, and for good reason. Ukrainian diplomats were well aware that at the Summit, the Russians could repeat what they had been saying for several months – essentially since the beginning of the attack. Putin made clear the Russian intentions, attempting to scuttle the peace talks in Switzerland. Just before the Summit, Putin presented his vision of “peace.”
Putin’s ultimatum
The Russian leader stated there would be peace if the Ukrainian army completely withdrew from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. In this instance, Vladimir Putin acknowledges the existing structure of the Ukrainian state as he requests the army’s withdrawal from these areas currently belonging to Ukrainian administrative borders. However, this condition effectively implies consent to Russia annexing these territories.
– As soon as Kyiv declares that it is ready for such decisions, starts withdrawing troops from these regions, and officially announces the abandonment of plans to join NATO, our side will immediately, literally in the same minute, order a ceasefire and start negotiations, Putin said.
The proposed ultimatum, inspired by 18th or 19th-century diplomacy, is clearly not acceptable to Kyiv. It would essentially require Ukraine to agree to the annexation of more than one-fifth of its territory, including Crimea. It would mark the second instance of Ukraine’s territory being partitioned following the annexation of Crimea in 2014. This outcome is unacceptable to the Ukrainians, especially after enduring two years of a bloody war. The potential consequences of accepting this ultimatum are more severe than mere failure. It would have a dire outcome for the future of the Ukrainian state and the international order and security in Europe. Most importantly, giving Russia the four regions mentioned by Putin would not lead to peace. Instead, it would pave the way for internal turmoil in the Ukrainian political arena.
The outcome of a defeat would lead to increased radicalization within Ukrainian political circles and among war veterans. It would work to Russia’s advantage by potentially leading to further expansion. Russia’s ultimate goal is to gain control over all of Ukraine, whether by turning Kyiv into a vassal state, instilling internal chaos to hinder Western intervention, or provoking an incident along the army demarcation line and then continuing the offensive. If the West tacitly accepted Putin’s conditions, it would open the door for Russia to expand its influence and further its dictatorial ambitions, for instance, in Eastern and Central Europe.
Race for Peace solution
Putin is not seeking a peaceful solution. His goal is to minimize the costs of war. It is also possible that Putin’s current peace proposal is intended to set the ground for a more moderate one in the future. For example, the Kremlin could demand the return of only the territories occupied by Russia. Such a proposed solution may seem more suitable to certain political groups in the West, even though it would still be unacceptable for Ukraine. But it might appeal to those referring to a false sense of realism or vocally advocating for peace at any cost. Even if it means sacrificing Ukraine because they claim that the world is “tired of war.” It suggests that it is the world that bears the truly tragic costs of warfare rather than the Ukraine. The Ukrainians are convinced they cannot accept unjust conditions and trade their country’s territory. Hence, at present, there are no grounds for initiating discussions. Kyiv and Moscow have entirely different visions of a peace formula. The war’s outcome will determine which party is willing to make even a minor compromise and lower its demands.
There is currently no sign of a breakthrough on the military front. The Russians and the Ukrainians are exhausted and working on rebuilding their military strength. Diplomatically, preparations for further offensives are being made, with an announcement of Zelensky’s next Peace Summit already issued. The rapid pace of peace initiatives is to be expected. In the West, significant changes may raise concerns from the perspective of unambiguous support for Ukraine after the presidential elections in the US or the parliamentary elections in France. Although there may not be any shocking changes here, it is uncertain what the priorities of the new British government will be after the July elections. Efforts to draft peace concepts in the West are certainly being expedited due to concerns about unknown political changes in crucial countries, particularly in the USA. Putin is also closely monitoring these possibilities. He keeps bringing new versions of the ultimatum to the table, even though his demands are currently unacceptable. However, it’s important to note that the Kremlin outlines conditions for ending the war, which will become a focal point in global diplomacy and a reference in future election campaigns.
Michał Kacewicz/belsat.eu
Translated by PEV
The opinions and thoughts expressed in the text reflect only the author's views.
